Jamie Ahmad's Blog

Bush Drops to 29%

2006-05-12T07:46:00.000-07:00

I don't know why this constitutes as news:

here

President George W. Bush's job approval rating has hit a new low, with 29 percent of the U.S. public saying he is doing an "excellent or pretty good job," down from 35 percent in April, according to a Harris Interactive poll in The Wall Street Journal Online.

The fact is that Bush's approval rating has five modes:

1. Airplanes flying into buildings
2. America invading Iraq
3. Saddam being found in a hole
4. Spending billions in a PR campaign to get reelected.
5. Dropping

http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/Approval.htm

So, hopefully #1 and #2 will not happen again, but if they do, I don't expect any spike. #4 is never going to happen. #3 could happen, in the context of Bin-Boy (bin-Laden). But for the most part we are looking at #5 for the duration.

The all time low for a US president is 24%, which Nixon had when he resigned. Just 5 more percent to go!

YOU CAN DO IT BUSH!

Ok, yes, I know.... He really needs to shave off 6% to go lower than Nixon, but I still think he can do it.

--Jamie

Iran's Nuclear Program

2006-05-12T06:47:00.000-07:00

Up until today, I have maintained my stance Iran has done nothing illegal in its Nuclear program. That stance is based on what has been proven in public (v.s. the "Trust us, we have secret information" stance that the Bush Administration sometimes pushes).

However, we now have this story:

here

U.N. inspectors have discovered new traces of highly-enriched uranium on nuclear equipment in Iran, deepening suspicions Tehran may still be concealing the full extent of its atomic enrichment program, diplomats said.

Basically, the IAEA found vacuum pumps with traces of uranium at Iran's Lavizan facility. Some traces are at lowly enriched uranium (less than 20%) and some traces are highly enriched uranium (more than 20%). There is no need to enrich uranium beyond 5% for a civilian nuclear power program.

If Iran is responsible for the presence of highly enriched uranium on their equipment, they are in violation of the NPT, and punitive action should be taken against Iran.

Previous Discovery
To be fair, the UN found a similar situation on some Iranian centrifuges years ago. However, those centrifuges came from Pakistan.... and the results of tests showed:

The Highly Enriched Uranium had an isotope mix that was consistent with Pakistani Uranium Stock.

The Lowly Enriched Uranium had an isotope mix that was consistent with Iranian Uranium Stock.

Therefore, it was concluded that Iran did not participate in the act of highly enriching uranium. Instead, Pakistan participated in the act of highly enriching uranium with equipment that was later sold to Iran.

Current Discovery
The same could be the case for the vacuum pumps. However, there are two questions which only time will answer:

1. Iran publicly denies using the Lavizan facility for atomic work. It may be that they confidentially told the IAEA a different story. Therefore if the IAEA proves that any nuclear work occurred at Lavizan, then there is a problem if Iran told the IAEA that no nuclear work occured at Lavizan. The IAEA's next report should clear this issue up.

2. It is one thing to buy centrifuges from Pakistan. However, it seems less likely that Iran bought vacuum pumps. In any case, this issue will be cleared up when advanced isotope tests on the traces are done to determine is the traces are of Iranian or Pakistani origin.... it could take months.

So until these two issues are cleared up, my stance is:

Iran may have violated the NPT, pending the results of an investigation by the IAEA.

If both of the two questions I stated are cleared up, in favor of Iran, then my stance will return to:

Based on public information, Iran's nuclear program is perfectly legal.

--Jamie

CIA update

2006-05-09T16:26:00.000-07:00

We all heard about Porter Goss stepping down.

here

Why?

Probably because he picked Kyle Foggo (who had little experience) to be #3 at the agency.... Now that person is being investigated for bribery and prostitution "issues":

here

In a statement issued by the CIA, Foggo said he never saw prostitutes at
the games and he said any allegation to the contrary would be "false, outrageous
and irresponsible."

note to media: When they make statements like this, you need to follow it up with:

Have ever seen a prostitute in general.

or

Did any criminal act occur, or did you see anyone you know to be a criminal during your meetings with Duke Cunningham?

OK, back to the issue at hand.
Bush Appointed Porter Goss to the #1 spot, who appointed Kyle Foggo to the #3 spot. Kyle Foggo is being investigated so he is gone. Therefore Porter Goss is going too.

In the mean time, Bush has nominated General Michael Hayden to Replace Porter Goss without thinking.

here

By Law, both the director and the deputy director cannot be current or
retired military officers. So, presuming the administration will take the
unprecedented step of actually following the law, the current Deputy Director
(Navy Vice Adm. Albert Calland) will have to step down the same day that General
Michael Hayden comes in.

So we have a situation where the #1, #2 and #3 people are all leaving the CIA. Which would have been fine, except that Porter Goss was running off all of the mid level people during his tenure.

here

Acting director John McLaughlin, a career officer who led the agency after
Tenet resigned, left soon after Goss arrived.
Stephen Kappes, the director
of the CIA's clandestine services, and his deputy, Michael Sulick, followed
McLaughlin out the door in December 2004. Director for Intelligence Jami Miscik,
who was responsible for Bush's daily presidential briefing, announced her
resignation the same month.

I don't know what to say about this.

--Jamie

Bush Drops to 31%

2006-05-09T16:20:00.000-07:00

From a CBS news poll:

here

Only 31% of those polled approve of Mr. Bush's job performance and 68% believe the United States is worse off today than it was before Bush became president.

All I have to say: 31% of the people of this country are not paying attention or are stupid.

--Jamie

Promoting Incompetence

2006-05-05T05:40:00.000-07:00

Or rather, promoting individuals who will not oppose you and demoting individuals who oppose you.

Tony Blair, the Prime Minister of Great Britain has announced the firing of many cabinet ministers today. Among them Jack Straw has been removed from his post as The Foreign Secretary.

The third paragraph in this article says:

Blair removed Jack Straw as foreign secretary, replacing him with Margaret Beckett, who had headed the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

Wait, let me get this right, Tony Blair replaced a seasoned Foreign Diplomat in favor of an individual who was the head of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs...... For the position of The Foreign Secretary!

Why on earth would he do that?

The answer might exist in this article:

Jack Straw has warned Cabinet colleagues that it would be illegal for Britain to support the United States in military action against Iran. But Tony Blair has backed President George Bush by warning that ruling out military action would send out a "message of weakness" to Iran.

--Jamie

Geography Skills

2006-05-04T08:51:00.000-07:00

Yes, this news is a few days old, but for what it is worth:

National Geographic Survey

The point can be recognized by just reading the first two paragraphs. Apparently 62% of 18-24 year olds in America cannot point to Iraq on a map of the Middle East.

OK, now would be a good time to compare the stance of President Bush to reality:

President Bush:
2400 Americans have died in Iraq, and if we withdraw too soon, they would have died in vain.

Reality:
Lets assume that the 62% statistic holds for service members who have died in Iraq (the age grouping certainly matches). That means that 1600 American service members have died in Iraq, but the day before they died they would not have been able to point to Iraq on a map. That is the definition of dying in vain.

--Jamie

New Link of the Day

2006-05-03T12:39:00.000-07:00

Ok, well it is old news... But since it was never reported widely enough, here goes:

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060407/NEWS07/604070472/1009

Remember in December when the president said that a particular spying program only spies on calls made from outside the united states into the united states? Well he was telling the truth. However, shock! There is more than one spying program going on these days.

--Jamie

Past Links of the Day

2006-05-03T12:37:00.000-07:00

http://abcnews.go.com/images/Nightline/ntl_ervin_pdf.pdf
http://www.kcci.com/news/9154160/detail.html

First Post

2006-05-03T12:35:00.000-07:00

Hello World

--Jamie